Close Gallery
Zoom Picture

London.– The tide may be turning at last for the U.S. dollar after seven years of decline as policy makers recognize the inflationary threat of an endlessly weakening dollar that has driven up oil and the prices of other commodities.

Speeches this week by central bank governors from the United States, the euro zone and Japan as well as other finance chiefs from major economies will probably reinforce the view that authorities may finally wish to see a floor for the dollar.

Investors will also scrutinize consumer price figures from Britain, the euro zone and the United States and growth indicators from the euro zone and Japan.

After hitting all-time lows in mid-March, the dollar has risen more than 3 percent to hit a two-month peak against its six major peers in the past week, coinciding with growing expectations that the worst of the credit crisis may be over.

The rally comes after a downtrend since 2001 that reduced the value of the dollar by more than 40 percent.

A weakening dollar has contributed to a rise in the cost of raw materials, which are mainly priced in the U.S. currency, with everything from oil to corn hitting historic highs.

And inflation dangers pose a headache for central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has cut interest rates seven times since September to 2 percent, the lowest since December 2004, to stabilize the economy.

"It seems as if U.S. Treasury and possibly even Federal Reserve officials might be starting to view the dollar's slide as an inflation risk," said Steven Pearson, chief strategist at Bank of Scotland. "Certainly U.S. political figures will not want the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy impeded in any way. In this sense the objection to the weakness of the dollar is understandable - a stronger dollar is starting to be in everyone's interest."

A growing Fed focus on inflation means the end might be near for a U.S. campaign to relax monetary policy to fight the economic fallout from the nine-month-old credit crisis.

Interest rate futures are already pricing in a chance that the Fed has already finished cutting interest rates. Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Fed, has even said that the central bank must be ready to raise interest rates given the troublesome inflation outlook.

Andrew Garthwaite, research analyst at Credit Suisse, says valuations, an improving U.S. current account deficit, narrowing U.S. interest rate and growth differentials over the euro zone and Britain are part of the reasons why the dollar should find a bottom soon. He also says companies with a high proportion of revenues and a low proportion of costs sourced in dollars should benefit from a strong dollar.

Garthwaite listed Rolls-Royce and HSBC among the likely winners, and Alcatel Lucent and Nokia among potential losers.

Economic indicators this week could add to recent signs that the world's major economies are losing momentum at a time when price pressures threaten to erode corporate profits and hit consumer confidence further.

Britain was expected to announce producer prices data on Monday and consumer inflation figures on Tuesday. The United States will announce its consumer price index data on Wednesday. On Thursday, the euro zone will also announce its consumer price index data, along with first quarter gross domestic product data. Japan's first quarter gross domestic product data are due on Friday.

The high price of oil would certainly weigh on growth. Credit Suisse estimates that oil at $120 a barrel takes 0.6 percent off the U.S. GDP and adds 1.2 percent to inflation. On Friday, U.S. crude hit a record high of $125.96 a barrel.

Share / Recommend this article: Digg thisDigg this del.icio.usdel.icio.us TechnoratiTechnorati YahooYahoo
COMMENTS
6 comment(s)
Report as spam/innapropiate
Written by: josean, 11 May 2008 11:48 AM
From: United States
I can see Cardinal "Nicky" looking for matches so "Lie-onel" and the PLD can light candles to the Saints so this doesn't happen before the May 16!
Report as spam/innapropiate
Written by: rossbuildersinc, 11 May 2008 8:30 PM
From: United States
wow.. everyone complains about how weak the dollar is.. look at all the money going to iraq.. africa.. millions to the dominican.. katrina, 9-11, the tsumami.. and now southeast asia.. as an american i don't mind my tax dollar going to help other countries or people.. i just don't like when americans are blamed for everything under the sun... taken advantage of.. and the money we give away is abused. what else can happen in the world.. maybe russia and china can start putting all their money into helping others.. am i wrong?.. i never hear of china or russia helping or donating money to other countries.. helping humanity? help me
Report as spam/innapropiate
Written by: carbelk99 This user is banned, 11 May 2008 11:26 PM
From: United States
ROSSBUILDERSINC. I agree with you 100%.
Report as spam/innapropiate
Written by: gouletcolonial, 12 May 2008 6:35 AM
From: United States Virgin Islands, Christiansted.from the bar at the Comanche
this is from one of our fellow posters Chillaxin " Fidel helped Dominican that tried to get rid of Trujillo... And the U.S. put him in power.... when will you learn that these people "America" Doesn't really care about you and your land... They don't even care about the democracy in there own country as you can see with Bush "..... what kind of education do these people have to believe these nutty ideas?
Report as spam/innapropiate
Written by: time2rize, 12 May 2008 5:13 PM
From: Dominican Republic
Trujillo... And the U.S. put him in power
__________________________________

gouletcolonial,

Are you saying that U.S. did not put him in power? or am i misunderstanding you.
Report as spam/innapropiate
Written by: gouletcolonial, 12 May 2008 5:39 PM
From: United States Virgin Islands, Christiansted.from the bar at the Comanche
thats history ........the other stuff is nutty hugo
Post Your Comment | Not a member? Create your account | Lost your password?
Write your opinion here. Please keep your comment relevant to this article. Please note that any comments which contain offensive language or discriminatory expressions may be edited/removed.
You must log in to post a comment:
Username Password